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Disasters - Probability and Being Self Reliant

Probability and Being Self Reliant

The natural order of  almost anything can be explained by the law of probability.

Probability, in a simplified definition, is the amount and type of outlying problems and influences, added to the actual problem, equals the severity of the problem at hand. It really doesn't matter whether the problem is a good one or bad. Probability is directly related to the natural order of things.

The natural order says, the more severe a problem is, the less likely it will happen. This does not mean that it won't or can't happen. It only means that it's not as likely. This is why we, as preppers must spend time being self reliant as possible and prepare for the mundane and "TEOTWAWKI".


Life has taught us, the short term and personal disaster happens more frequently than the wide spread "TEOTWAWKI" event.

We prepare for short term disaster first because it is the most likely to happen. House fire, tornado or high winds, divorce, death in the family ect. All are very painful to the people they affect but have a short term serious effect on your life once the initial danger has passed. You can recover and rebuild your life relatively easily and in a short period of time.

Life has also taught us that a long term disaster,  "The End Of The World As We Know It", may or may not happen. In the natural order of things, "TEOTWAWKI" is far less likely to occur. It takes a perfect storm for a severe long term problem to arise. We also know, if it happens, it will be wide spread, life threatening and long term. Therefore, we also prepare for "TEOTWAWKI" because it is a continuing, life threatening event, over a long period of time and extremely difficult to recover from. Economic collapse, EMP, severe CME, ect. are all examples of a continuing, life threatening event, over a long period of time and would be extremely difficult to recover from.We want to survive. Thats why it's important to have self sufficient living. Survival is imperative.

Being self reliant doesn't mean that a disaster won't affect you. It only means that the damage from the disaster will be mitigated. Being self reliant in a limited disaster will make life and recovery not easy, but easier.

Being self reliant in a long term, wide spread "TEOTWAWKI" event won't insure your survival but will give you the tools you need to survive.

Disasters happen frequently, but on a small scale. They are regional disasters effecting only a small portion of society. Hurricanes, regional wars and drought are regional disasters. Truly a disaster to the inhabitants of the area but on a global scale, only a speed bump. "TEOTWAWKI", on the other hand, is far reaching and is a global severe threat to our existence.

Being Self Reliant. It's a way of life.

Probability and Being Self Reliant

Helping you help yourself.


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